|Strategy & Sales|
26 February 2021 11:42
Global Head of Desk Strategy
+1 203 897 4689
Co-Head Global Economics &
Head of Strategic Coordination and Business Operations
+1 203 897 2818
If you wish to discuss the content of this email further, please contact your usual sales person. Reminder, clients of Natwest Markets NV should reach out to their relevant NV sales person.
Rise of the Developed World
Updating the NWM COVID Growth Differentiation Framework
In our Year Ahead, we laid out our COVID Differentiation Framework, which scores countries based on virus management, policy response, and economic scarring. A clear conclusion in November was Asian outperformance looked likely to be sustained strongly, even if the growth “delta” was likely to shift West in 2021, as a viable vaccine-sparked a consumer-led recovery.
Now, with the pandemic entering its next (and hopefully final) phase of vaccinations and sustained reopenings, we update our framework to include two new elements: vaccination distribution and “impetus to growth”, the latter gauging those economies best positioned structurally for a post-COVID normalization of both domestic and global activity (i.e. those where the service sector and exports account for a large percent of GDP).
Evaluating growth prospects through this expanded lens leads us to expect the following:
Please see the attached pdf for our full analysis.
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