European Rates Strategy
Western Europe Covid-19 Monitor
2021-07-14T12:00:33

Western Europe Covid-19 Monitor

The Delta variant is spreading across Europe. Cases are rising, in most countries. Netherlands now looks to be one of the most worrying regions – cases have risen rapidly over the past week. Spain is still concerning, but may well be starting to flatten slightly.  

Governments are reacting by rolling back some restrictions. Nightclubs are shutting in some regions in Spain, France has made vaccinations or a negative covid test a condition of entry to bars, restaurants and public transport, amongst other things.

Vaccines still appear to have broken the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths. The data is still optimistic – cases are rising, but hospitalisations and mortality are not following the same trajectory as they have in previous waves. This should mean that large scale lockdown restrictions are avoided.

Vaccines are catching up in Europe (as the UK and US flattens off). Europe continues to catch up to the UK and US in terms of vaccination progress. It will shortly have overtaken the US in terms of doses administered as a proportion of the population (see page 5). Of the major Euro Area countries, France is the laggard, but Macron’s latest policy announcements could change this.

  

In this report:

Western Europe Overview...................................................................... (p3)

Testing and positivity rates..................................................................... (p4)

Vaccine capacity and distribution by country....................................... (p5)

Vaccine distribution vs supply by country............................................. (p6)

Daily vaccination rates............................................................................ (p8)

Vaccines by age group........................................................................... (p10)

Regional 7-day case rates per 100k population................................... (p12)

Regional case numbers vs social distancing index heatmap............... (p14)

Maps of regional case numbers by GDP............................................... (p15)

Regional hospitalisation rates................................................................. (p17)

Excess mortality by country............................................................................................... (p19)

  

  

  

  

  


Please click here to find all of NatWest Markets’ Strategy and Sales commentary/ideas. 

You can also find out more about our electronic offering and credentials for Rates here and for FX here.


This is Non-Independent Research, as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority. Not intended for Retail Client distribution. This material should be regarded as a marketing communication and may have been produced in conjunction with the NatWest Markets Plc trading desks that trade as principal in the instruments mentioned herein. All data is accurate as of the report date, unless otherwise specified.

This communication has been prepared by NatWest Markets Plc, and should be regarded as a Marketing Communication, for which the relevant competent authority is the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

Please follow the link for the following information https://ci.natwest.com/regulatory-information/market-abuse-regulation-mar-disclosures:

  • MAR Disclaimer
  • Conflicts of Interest statement
  • Glossary of definitions
  • Historic Trade ideas log


Note that the text above is subject to the disclaimer(s) accessible if you Click Here
Authors
Image
Imogen Bachra, CFA
European Rates Strategist
London
+44 20 7085 8381
Image
Giles Gale
Head of European Rates Strategy
London
+44 20 7085 5971

Contributors
{{contributor-span-repeater}}

If you wish to discuss the content of this article further, please contact your usual sales person. Reminder, clients of Natwest Markets NV should reach out to their relevant NV sales person.


"Related Articles" Coming Up Next..
  • 1. BoE Inflation Report - Reinforcing Policy Neutrality
  • 2. BoE Inflation Report - Reinforcing Policy Neutrality
  • 3. BoE Inflation Report - Reinforcing Policy Neutrality
  • 4. BoE Inflation Report - Reinforcing Policy Neutrality